{"id":2795,"date":"2025-12-02T21:50:22","date_gmt":"2025-12-02T19:50:22","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/eppd13.cz\/?page_id=2795"},"modified":"2025-12-02T21:50:22","modified_gmt":"2025-12-02T19:50:22","slug":"forecasting-political-risks-modern-models-and-their-efficiency-in-the-conditions-of-black-swans","status":"publish","type":"page","link":"https:\/\/eppd13.cz\/?page_id=2795","title":{"rendered":"Forecasting Political Risks: Modern Models and their Efficiency in the Conditions of “Black Swans”"},"content":{"rendered":"

DOI: <\/strong>10.46340\/eppd.2025.12.5.2<\/a><\/p>\n

Svitlana Naumkina, DSc in Political science<\/strong>
\nSouth Ukrainian National Pedagogical University named after K. D. Ushynsky, Odessa, Ukraine<\/em>
\nTetiana Kamenchuk, PhD in Political Science<\/strong>
\nSouth Ukrainian National Pedagogical University named after K. D. Ushynsky, Odessa, Ukraine<\/em><\/p>\n

\"\"<\/a><\/p>\n

How to cite: <\/em><\/strong>Naumkina, S., & Kamenchuk, T. (2025). Forecasting Political Risks: Modern Models and their Efficiency in the Conditions of “Black Swans”. Evropsk\u00fd politick\u00fd a pr\u00e1vn\u00ed diskurz, 12, 5,<\/em> 44-47. https:\/\/doi.org\/10.46340\/eppd.2025.12.5.2<\/a><\/p>\n

 <\/p>\n

Abstract<\/strong><\/p>\n

The article is devoted to a critical analysis of modern methods for forecasting political risks and their ability to adapt to conditions of high uncertainty, particularly to the emergence of “black swan” events. The aim of the study is to identify the limitations of traditional quantitative and qualitative models of political risk analysis and to systematize the latest approaches aimed at enhancing the resilience of political and socio-economic systems. The methodology is based on a systems approach, comparative analysis, and principles of complexity theory. The article reveals the essence of N. N. Taleb’s “black swan” concept and substantiates its relevance for contemporary political analytics. The key shortcomings of classical models are analyzed, highlighting their excessive reliance on historical data and extrapolation of past trends, which makes them vulnerable to unprecedented events. Four groups of modern adaptive approaches are examined: scenario planning, agent-based modeling (ABM), the use of big data and artificial intelligence (AI), and the paradigm shift from forecasting to building antifragility. It is established that scenario planning allows for preparation for multiple future outcomes, ABM helps understand the nonlinear dynamics of complex systems, and big data analysis can identify hidden patterns and weak signals. The conclusion is drawn that in the current environment, the focus of political risk analysis is shifting from attempts to accurately predict specific events to building adaptive and resilient systems (resilience and antifragility) capable of withstanding unpredictable shocks and even benefiting from them.<\/p>\n

Keywords:<\/strong><\/em> political risks, forecasting, \u00abblack swan\u00bb, uncertainty, modeling, scenario planning, big data, antifragility, political riskology, political process, political power, state, political space, mass media, digital technologies, artificial intelligence, social networks, political changes.<\/p>\n

 <\/p>\n

References<\/strong><\/p>\n

Vasylenko, S. D. (2022). Kontseptsiya rezylyentnosti v teoriyi natsionalnoyi bezpeky: suchasni pidkhody<\/em> [The\u00a0Concept of\u00a0Resilience in\u00a0the\u00a0Theory of\u00a0National Security: Modern Approaches]. Stratehichni priorytety. Seriya: Polityka<\/em> [Strategic Priorities. Series: Politics], 1 (15)<\/em>, 55-64. [in Ukrainian].<\/p>\n

Hoshovska, V. A. (2021). Politychni ryzyky v umovakh hibrydnykh zahroz: ukrayinskyy vymir [Political Risks in\u00a0the\u00a0Context of\u00a0Hybrid Threats: the\u00a0Ukrainian Dimension]. Visnyk Natsionalnoyi akademiyi derzhavnoho upravlinnya pry Prezydentovi Ukrayiny<\/em> [Bulletin of\u00a0the\u00a0National Academy of\u00a0Public Administration under the\u00a0President of\u00a0Ukraine], 4<\/em>, 25-33. [in Ukrainian].<\/p>\n

Kovalenko, I. V. (2023). Stsenarne planuvannya yak instrument stratehichnoho analizu v systemi derzhavnoho upravlinnya [Scenario Planning as\u00a0a\u00a0Tool of\u00a0Strategic Analysis in\u00a0the\u00a0System of\u00a0Public Administration]. Derzhavne upravlinnya: teoriya ta praktyka<\/em> [Public Administration: Theory and Practice], 2<\/em>, 108-117. [in\u00a0Ukrainian].<\/p>\n

Melnyk, O. P. (2022). Kohnityvni uperedzhennya v ekspertnomu prohnozuvanni politychnykh protsesiv [Cognitive Biases in\u00a0Expert Forecasting of\u00a0Political Processes]. Politychnyy menedzhment<\/em> [Political Management, 3<\/em>, 88-97. [in Ukrainian].<\/p>\n

Petrenko, V. S. (2023). Ahent-oriyentovane modelyuvannya sotsial\u02b9nykh konfliktiv: metodolohichnyy potentsial [Agent-Oriented Modeling of\u00a0Social Conflicts: Methodological Potential]. Sotsiolohiya: teoriya, metody, marketynh<\/em> [Sociology: Theory, Methods, Marketing], 1<\/em>, 75-85. [in Ukrainian].<\/p>\n

Reznikova, O. V. (2021). Hlobalni ryzyky ta yikhniy vplyv na zovnishnyu polityku Ukrayiny [Global Risks and their Impact on Ukraine’s Foreign Policy]. Aktualni problemy mizhnarodnykh vidnosyn<\/em> [Current Problems of\u00a0International Relations], 130<\/em>, 15-24. [in Ukrainian].<\/p>\n

Tkachenko, V. I. (2022). Statystychni modeli v politychniy analitytsi: mozhlyvosti ta obmezhennya. Statystyka Ukrayiny [Statistical Models in\u00a0Political Analytics: Possibilities and Limitations]. Statystyka Ukrayiny<\/em> [Statistics of\u00a0Ukraine], 4<\/em>, 42-50. [in Ukrainian].<\/p>\n

Shevchenko, M. A. (2023). Vykorystannya Big Data dlya monitorynhu ta prohnozuvannya politychnoyi stabilnosti [Using Big Data for Monitoring and Forecasting Political Stability]. Informatsiya i pravo <\/em>[Information and Law], 3 (38)<\/em>, 30-39. [in Ukrainian].<\/p>\n

Bremmer, I. (2022). The Power of\u00a0Crisis: How Three Threats\u00a0\u2013 and Our Response\u00a0\u2013 Will Change the\u00a0World<\/em>. Simon & Schuster.<\/p>\n

Gilbert, N. (2021). Agent-Based Models<\/em>. SAGE Publications.<\/p>\n

Goldin, I. (2021). The Butterfly Defect: How Globalization Creates Systemic Risks, and What to Do About It<\/em>. Princeton University Press.<\/p>\n

Taleb, N. N. (2021). The Black Swan: The Impact of\u00a0the\u00a0Highly Improbable<\/em>. Random House.<\/p>\n

Taleb, N. N. (2022). Antifragile: Things That Gain from Disorder<\/em>. Penguin Books.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

DOI: 10.46340\/eppd.2025.12.5.2 Svitlana Naumkina, DSc in Political science South Ukrainian National Pedagogical University named after K. D. Ushynsky, Odessa, Ukraine Tetiana Kamenchuk, PhD in Political Science South Ukrainian National Pedagogical University named after K. D. Ushynsky, Odessa, Ukraine How to cite: Naumkina, S., & Kamenchuk, T. (2025). Forecasting Political Risks:… Continue reading → <\/span><\/a><\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":0,"parent":2785,"menu_order":2,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","template":"","meta":{"footnotes":""},"class_list":["post-2795","page","type-page","status-publish","hentry"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/eppd13.cz\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/pages\/2795","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/eppd13.cz\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/pages"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/eppd13.cz\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/types\/page"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/eppd13.cz\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/users\/1"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/eppd13.cz\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcomments&post=2795"}],"version-history":[{"count":1,"href":"https:\/\/eppd13.cz\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/pages\/2795\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":2796,"href":"https:\/\/eppd13.cz\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/pages\/2795\/revisions\/2796"}],"up":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/eppd13.cz\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/pages\/2785"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/eppd13.cz\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fmedia&parent=2795"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}