DOI: 10.46340/eppd.2025.12.5.2
Svitlana Naumkina, DSc in Political science
South Ukrainian National Pedagogical University named after K. D. Ushynsky, Odessa, Ukraine
Tetiana Kamenchuk, PhD in Political Science
South Ukrainian National Pedagogical University named after K. D. Ushynsky, Odessa, Ukraine
How to cite: Naumkina, S., & Kamenchuk, T. (2025). Forecasting Political Risks: Modern Models and their Efficiency in the Conditions of “Black Swans”. Evropský politický a právní diskurz, 12, 5, 44-47. https://doi.org/10.46340/eppd.2025.12.5.2
Abstract
The article is devoted to a critical analysis of modern methods for forecasting political risks and their ability to adapt to conditions of high uncertainty, particularly to the emergence of “black swan” events. The aim of the study is to identify the limitations of traditional quantitative and qualitative models of political risk analysis and to systematize the latest approaches aimed at enhancing the resilience of political and socio-economic systems. The methodology is based on a systems approach, comparative analysis, and principles of complexity theory. The article reveals the essence of N. N. Taleb’s “black swan” concept and substantiates its relevance for contemporary political analytics. The key shortcomings of classical models are analyzed, highlighting their excessive reliance on historical data and extrapolation of past trends, which makes them vulnerable to unprecedented events. Four groups of modern adaptive approaches are examined: scenario planning, agent-based modeling (ABM), the use of big data and artificial intelligence (AI), and the paradigm shift from forecasting to building antifragility. It is established that scenario planning allows for preparation for multiple future outcomes, ABM helps understand the nonlinear dynamics of complex systems, and big data analysis can identify hidden patterns and weak signals. The conclusion is drawn that in the current environment, the focus of political risk analysis is shifting from attempts to accurately predict specific events to building adaptive and resilient systems (resilience and antifragility) capable of withstanding unpredictable shocks and even benefiting from them.
Keywords: political risks, forecasting, «black swan», uncertainty, modeling, scenario planning, big data, antifragility, political riskology, political process, political power, state, political space, mass media, digital technologies, artificial intelligence, social networks, political changes.
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